Immunogenic profile of a plant-produced nonavalent African horse sickness viral protein 2 (VP2) vaccine in IFNAR-/- mice.

A safe, highly immunogenic multivalent vaccine to protect against all nine serotypes of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), will revolutionise the AHS vaccine industry in endemic countries and beyond. Plant-produced AHS virus-like particles (VLPs) and soluble viral protein 2 (VP2) vaccine candidates were developed that have the potential to protect against all nine serotypes but can equally well be formulated as mono- and bi-valent formulations for localised outbreaks of specific serotypes. In the first interferon α/ß receptor knock-out (IFNAR-/-) mice trial conducted, a nine-serotype (nonavalent) vaccine administered as two pentavalent (5 µg per serotype) vaccines (VLP/VP2 combination or exclusively VP2), were directly compared to the commercially available AHS live attenuated vaccine. In a follow up trial, mice were vaccinated with an adjuvanted nine-serotype multivalent VP2 vaccine in a prime boost strategy and resulted in the desired neutralising antibody titres of 1:320, previously demonstrated to confer protective immunity in IFNAR-/- mice. In addition, the plant-produced VP2 vaccine performed favourably when compared to the commercial vaccine. Here we provide compelling data for a nonavalent VP2-based vaccine candidate, with the VP2 from each serotype being antigenically distinguishable based on LC-MS/MS and ELISA data. This is the first preclinical trial demonstrating the ability of an adjuvanted nonavalent cocktail of soluble, plant-expressed AHS VP2 proteins administered in a prime-boost strategy eliciting high antibody titres against all 9 AHSV serotypes. Furthermore, elevated T helper cells 2 (Th2) and Th1, indicative of humoral and cell-mediated memory T cell immune responses, respectively, were detected in mouse serum collected 14 days after the multivalent prime-boost vaccination. Both Th2 and Th1 may play a role to confer protective immunity. These preclinical immunogenicity studies paved the way to test the safety and protective efficacy of the plant-produced nonavalent VP2 vaccine candidate in the target animals, horses.

Development and Validation of Three Triplex Real-Time RT-PCR Assays for Typing African Horse Sickness Virus: Utility for Disease Control and Other Laboratory Applications.

The African horse sickness virus (AHSV) belongs to the Genus Orbivirus, family Sedoreoviridae, and nine serotypes of the virus have been described to date. The AHSV genome is composed of ten linear segments of double-stranded (ds) RNA, numbered in decreasing size order (Seg-1 to Seg-10). Genome segment 2 (Seg-2) encodes outer-capsid protein VP2, the most variable AHSV protein and the primary target for neutralizing antibodies. Consequently, Seg-2 determines the identity of the virus serotype. An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak in an AHS-free status country requires identifying the serotype as soon as possible to implement a serotype-specific vaccination program. Considering that nowadays 'polyvalent live attenuated' is the only commercially available vaccination strategy to control the disease, field and vaccine strains of different serotypes could co-circulate. Additionally, in AHS-endemic countries, more than one serotype is often circulating at the same time. Therefore, a strategy to rapidly determine the virus serotype in an AHS-positive sample is strongly recommended in both epidemiological situations. The main objective of this study is to describe the development and validation of three triplex real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) methods for rapid AHSV serotype detection. Samples from recent AHS outbreaks in Kenia (2015-2017), Thailand (2020), and Nigeria (2023), and from the AHS outbreak in Spain (1987-1990), were included in the study for the validation of these methods.

Cytokine mRNA Expression Profile in Target Organs of IFNAR (-/-) Mice Infected with African Horse Sickness Virus.

African horse sickness (AHS) is a highly severe disease caused by a viral etiological agent, African horse sickness virus (AHSV). It is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, while sporadic outbreaks have occurred in North Africa, Asia, and Europe, with the most recent cases in Thailand. AHSV transmission between equines occurs primarily by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, especially C. imicola, with a wide distribution globally. As research in horses is highly restricted due to a variety of factors, small laboratory animal models that reproduce clinical signs and pathology observed in natural infection of AHSV are highly needed. Here, we investigated the expression profile of several pro-inflammatory cytokines in target organs and serum of IFNAR (-/-) mice, to continue characterizing this established animal model and to go deep into the innate immune responses that are still needed.

Identification of T cell and linear B cell epitopes on African horse sickness virus serotype 4 proteins VP1-1, VP2, VP4, VP7 and NS3.

The viral proteins VP1-1, VP2, VP4, VP7 and NS3, of African horse sickness virus serotype 4 (AHSV4), have previously been identified to contain CD8+ T cell epitopes. In this study, overlapping peptides spanning the entire sequences of these AHSV4 proteins were synthesized and used to map epitopes. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) isolated from five horses immunized with an attenuated AHSV4 were stimulated in vitro with the synthesized peptides. Various memory immune assays were used to identify the individual peptides that contain CD8+ T cell epitopes, CD4+ T cell epitopes and linear B cell epitopes. The newly discovered individual peptides of AHSV4 proteins VP1-1, VP4, VP7 and/or NS3 that contain CD8+ T cell, CD4+ T cell or linear B cell epitopes could contribute to the design and development of new generation AHS peptide-based vaccines and therapeutics.

Culicoides-borne Orbivirus epidemiology in a changing climate.

Orbiviruses are of significant importance to the health of wildlife and domestic animals worldwide; the major orbiviruses transmitted by multiple biting midge (Culicoides) species include bluetongue virus, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, and African horse sickness virus. The viruses, insect vectors, and hosts are anticipated to be impacted by global climate change, altering established Orbivirus epidemiology. Changes in global climate have the potential to alter the vector competence and extrinsic incubation period of certain biting midge species, affect local and long-distance dispersal dynamics, lead to range expansion in the geographic distribution of vector species, and increase transmission period duration (earlier spring onset and later fall transmission). If transmission intensity is associated with weather anomalies such as droughts and wind speeds, there may be changes in the number of outbreaks and periods between outbreaks for some regions. Warmer temperatures and changing climates may impact the viral genome by facilitating reassortment and through the emergence of novel viral mutations. As the climate changes, Orbivirus epidemiology will be inextricably altered as has been seen with recent outbreaks of bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, and African horse sickness outside of endemic areas, and requires interdisciplinary teams and approaches to assess and mitigate future outbreak threats.

Effect of Exercise in a Vector-Protected Arena for Preventing African Horse Sickness Transmission on Physiological, Biochemical, and Behavioral Variables of Horses.

During an African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak, horses were able to exercise daily in a net-covered arena, yet the physiological responses to exercise in a netted arena was unknown. In a cross-over study design, eight horses performed a 39-minute aerobic exercise in conventional (CA) and vector-protected arenas (VPA). Horses were slower in some gaits and covered less distance in the VPA arena (P < .01). Cortisol release, hematology, and heart rate variability (HRV) were also examined. An interaction between the riding arena and time was observed in hematocrit (P = .0013), hemoglobin (P = .0012), and red blood cell count (P = .0027) and HRV variables, including mean beat-to-beat (RR) intervals (P < .0001), mean heart rate (P < .0001), sympathetic nervous system (SNS) index (P = .0038) and parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) index (P < .0001). Cortisol concentrations increased during exercise and 30 minutes postexercise in both arenas. Hematocrit, hemoglobin, and red blood cell count increased immediately postexercise in horses in VPA while remaining high from immediate post-exercise to 60 minutes postexercise in horses in CA. HRV decreased during exercise and was not different between horses in both arenas, but a higher RR interval and PNS index, corresponding to lower heart rate and SNS index, were detected during 30 to 60 minutes postexercise in horses in the VPA compared to the CA. Riding horses in different arenas impacted hematological and HRV variables. The greater RR intervals and PNS index, coinciding with the lower SNS index and heart rate, indicated parasympathetic dominance post-exercise in horses in VPA compared to CA.

Modelling African horse sickness emergence and transmission in the South African control area using a deterministic metapopulation approach.

African horse sickness is an equine orbivirus transmitted by Culicoides Latreille biting midges. In the last 80 years, it has caused several devastating outbreaks in the equine population in Europe, the Far and Middle East, North Africa, South-East Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The disease is endemic in South Africa; however, a unique control area has been set up in the Western Cape where increased surveillance and control measures have been put in place. A deterministic metapopulation model was developed to explore if an outbreak might occur, and how it might develop, if a latently infected horse was to be imported into the control area, by varying the geographical location and months of import. To do this, a previously published ordinary differential equation model was developed with a metapopulation approach and included a vaccinated horse population. Outbreak length, time to peak infection, number of infected horses at the peak, number of horses overall affected (recovered or dead), re-emergence, and Rv (the basic reproduction number in the presence of vaccination) were recorded and displayed using GIS mapping. The model predictions were compared to previous outbreak data to ensure validity. The warmer months (November to March) had longer outbreaks than the colder months (May to September), took more time to reach the peak, and had a greater total outbreak size with more horses infected at the peak. Rv appeared to be a poor predictor of outbreak dynamics for this simulation. A sensitivity analysis indicated that control measures such as vaccination and vector control are potentially effective to manage the spread of an outbreak, and shortening the vaccination window to July to September may reduce the risk of vaccine-associated outbreaks.

The seroprevalence of African horse sickness virus, and risk factors to exposure, in domestic dogs in Tshwane, South Africa.

Dogs are the only non-equid species to develop the fatal form of African horse sickness (AHS). Research conducted in 2013 questioned the long-held belief that naturally occurring cases of AHS in dogs were contracted exclusively through the ingestion of contaminated horse meat. Culicoides midges, the vector of AHS virus (AHSV) for horses, have an aversion to dog blood meals and dogs were believed to be dead-end or incidental hosts. More recently, dog mortalities have occurred in the absence of horse meat consumption and vector transmission has been suspected. The current study is a retrospective serological survey of AHSV exposure in dogs from an endemic area. Dog sera collected from dogs (n = 366) living in the city of Tshwane, Gauteng Province, South Africa, were randomly selected from a biobank at a veterinary teaching hospital, corresponding to the years 2014-2019. The study used a laboratory in-house indirect recombinant VP7 antigen-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (iELISA) with a test cut-off calculated from AHSV exposure-free dog sera (n = 32). Study AHSV seroprevalence was 6 % (22/366) with an estimated true prevalence of 4.1 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-8.1 %). Incidence was estimated for dogs with multiple serological results with seroconversion occurring at a rate of 2.3 seroconversions per 10 dog years at risk (95 % CI = 0.6-6.2). A subsection of the study sera was tested with AHSV viral neutralisation test (VN) (n = 42) for serotype determination. Antibodies to AHSV serotype 6 were most prevalent (90 %) in VN seropositive dogs (n = 20) with most dogs seemingly subclinically infected (>95 %). Seroprevalence descriptively varied by year and identified risk factors were annual rainfall > 754 mm (odds ratio (OR) = 5.76; 95 % CI = 2.22 - 14.95; p < 0.001), medium human population densities, 783-1663 people/km2 (OR = 7.14; 95 % CI = 1.39 - 36.73; p = 0.019) and 1664-2029 people/km2 (OR = 6.74; 95 % CI = 1.40 - 32.56; p = 0.018), and the month of March (OR = 5.12; 95 % CI = 1.41 - 18.61; p = 0.013). All identified risk factors were consistent with midge-borne transmission to dogs. The relatively high seroprevalence and seroconversion rates suggest frequent exposure of dogs to AHSV and indicates the need to investigate the role dogs might play in the overall epidemiology and transmission of AHSV.

Influence of full-time housing in vector-protected facilities on equine cortisol levels, heart rate, and behavior during the African horse sickness outbreak in Thailand.

Horses were provided full-time housing in unfamiliar vector-protected facilities during the African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak in Thailand. This study aimed to investigate the impact of this housing arrangement on the equine stress response. Nine healthy horses were housed in both a traditional barn and a vector-protected barn. Equine behavior and stress response data were collected in association with the housing environment and time of day. The mean behavioral score of horses housed in the vector-protected barn was lower at night than during the day. In addition, the horses' mean heart rate at night was lower than their heart rate during the day, irrespective of housing condition. Furthermore, although blood cortisol peaked at 6:00 AM and was lowest at 6:00 PM under both housing conditions, daily fluctuations in blood cortisol levels were correlated with changes in humidity and temperature in both environments. Finally, horses housed in the traditional barn exhibited earlier decreases in cortisol levels relative to the horses in the vector-protected barn. This result indicates that housing horses in vector-protected facilities may impose stress.

On All Fours: Transient Laborers, the Threat of Movement, and the Aftermath of Disease.

African horse sickness (AHS) plagued the Middle East in 1944 for the first time. It spread into Palestine during a transformative period, as the role of animals as global migrant-laborers was shifting; soon after, automated machines would relieve their burden and transform the relations between farmers, traders, the state and its policing powers, and the global market. By following the movement and management of this outbreak of the disease, along with medical knowledge and tools of prevention and treatment, the article demonstrates that animal health and mobility were substantial matters of concern in British Palestine. It shows, furthermore, that AHS became a catalyst in dismantling the economic, social, and cultural value of animals of burden and their handlers.

Development of Differentiating Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) Real-Time PCR for African Horse Sickness Virus Serotype 1.

African horse sickness (AHS) is a highly infectious and often fatal disease caused by 9 serotypes of the orbivirus African horse sickness virus (AHSV). In March 2020, an AHS outbreak was reported in Thailand in which AHSV serotype 1 was identified as the causative agent. Trivalent live attenuated vaccines serotype 1, 3, and 4 were used in a targeted vaccination campaign within a 50-km radius surrounding the infected cases, which promptly controlled the spread of the disease. However, AHS-like symptoms in vaccinated horses required laboratory diagnostic methods to differentiate infected horses from vaccinated horses, especially for postvaccination surveillance. We describe a real-time reverse transcription PCR-based assay for rapid characterization of the affecting field strain. The development and validation of this assay should imbue confidence in differentiating AHS-vaccinated horses from nonvaccinated horses. This method should be applied to determining the epidemiology of AHSV in future outbreaks.

African horse sickness: an ancient disease for a current threat / La peste équine : une maladie ancienne pour une menace actuelle

African horse sickness (AHS) is a major arthropod-borne disease that causes significant losses in horses in sub-Saharan Africa. It is caused by the African horse sickness virus (AHSV), which is transmitted during a blood meal by Culicoides biting midges. The distribution of historical African culicoid vectors increases due to global warming. In addition, recent (Thailand, 2020) and earlier (Iberian Peninsula, 1965-66/1987-90) AHS outbreaks outside Africa demonstrate the adaptation of the virus to endogenous species in AHS-free regions, similar to what has been observed for bluetongue disease in recent decades. Therefore, many regions are considered at risk of introduction of AHS which could have important economic consequences for the equine industry. Overall, this prone the European Union to launch research programs to get better diagnostic and prophylactic tools.

La peste équine est une arbovirose majeure qui entraîne des pertes importantes chez les chevaux en Afrique subsaharienne. Elle est provoquée par le virus de la peste équine (African horse sickness virus, AHSV) dont la transmission s'effectue au cours d'un repas sanguin par des petits moucherons hématophages appartenant au genre Culicoides. En outre, les espèces vectrices historiques de culicoïdes présentes en Afrique voient leur aire de répartition s'étendre en lien avec le réchauffement climatique à l'échelle mondiale. Par ailleurs, des épisodes épizootiques récents (Thaïlande, 2020) ou un peu plus anciens (péninsule ibérique, 1965-66/1987-90) en dehors du continent africain soulignent la capacité d'adaptation du virus à des espèces vectrices autochtones, à l'instar de ce qui a été observé pour la fièvre catarrhale ovine ces dernières décennies. Ces facteurs laissent craindre à tout moment une introduction de la peste équine dans des régions indemnes. L'urgence est donc donnée actuellement par l'Union européenne pour se doter de meilleurs outils diagnostiques et prophylactiques afin de prévenir des conséquences économiques brutales pour l'industrie équine.

Comparative Genome Analysis of All Nine African Horse Sickness Serotypes Isolated From Equine Fatalities in Kenya and South Africa.

African horse sickness (AHS) is a viral disease of equids, caused by a virus of the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. The African horse sickness virus (AHSV) genome is made up of ten double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) segments that together code for seven structural and four nonstructural proteins. AHS is endemic in sub-Saharan countries. The efficacy and safety of inactivated AHS vaccines containing all nine serotypes, produced at the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates have been proven in the past. All nine AHSV serotypes were isolated from 102 samples collected in the last 20 years from horse fatalities in seven different area of Kenya, Africa. CVRL inactivated AHS vaccines are used in a few African countries defining the importance of this present study to compare the genome sequences of the nine AHSV serotypes isolated from horse fatalities in Kenya and nine AHSV serotypes isolated in South Africa. The hypothesized serotypes of the newly sequenced AHSV field strains from Kenya were likewise confirmed in this investigation, and they show substantial sequence homologies with recently isolated AHSV field strains.

Experimental infection with African Horse Sickness Virus in horses induces only mild temporal hematologic changes and acute phase reactant response.

OBJECTIVE: African Horse Sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne disease endemic to sub-Saharan Africa caused by African Horse Sickness Virus (AHVS). Infections in naïve horses have high morbidity and mortality rates. AHS pathogenesis is not well understood; neither the hematologic changes nor acute phase response occurring during infection has been fully evaluated. The study's objective was to characterize the hematologic changes and acute phase response during experimental infection with AHSV. ANIMALS: 4 horses negative for AHSV group-specific antibodies. PROCEDURES: In this prospective, longitudinal study conducted between November 23 and December 2, 2020, horses were experimentally infected with AHSV, and blood samples were obtained before inoculation and then every 12 hours until euthanasia. Hematologic changes and changes for serum amyloid A (SAA) and iron concentration were evaluated over time using a general linear model including natural logarithm of sampling time. RESULTS: All horses were humanely euthanized due to severe clinical signs typical of AHS. Median Hct increased significantly, and the median WBC count, monocyte count, eosinophil count, and myeloperoxidase index changed significantly in all horses over time. Horses developed marked thrombocytopenia (median, 48 X 103 cells/µL; range, 21 X 103 to 58 X 103 cells/µL) while markers of platelet activation also changed significantly. Median SAA increased and serum iron concentration decreased significantly over time. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results indicated severe thrombocytopenia with platelet activation occurs during infection with AHSV. Changes in acute phase reactants SAA and iron, while significant, were unexpectedly mild and might not be useful clinical markers.

The impact of Escherichia coli contamination products present in recombinant African horse sickness virus serotype 4 proteins on the innate and humoral immune responses.

Transcriptome analysis was used to characterise the in vitro primary and secondary immune responses induced in horse peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) stimulated for 24 h with the individual recombinant proteins of a virulent AHSV serotype 4 (AHSV4) field isolate (rAHSV4 proteins) that were previously expressed in Escherichia coli (E. coli). The results showed that the E. coli contamination products greatly affected the innate and humoral immune response transcripts. Hence, the impact of E. coli contamination products present in the individual rAHSV4 proteins on the translational immune response was determined. The combined amplification effects of synergistic pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), TNF-α and IL-1ß signalling induced potent pro-inflammatory responses that were too overwhelming for the anti-inflammatory cytokines and regulators to control. In addition to inducing robust B cell and antibody-mediated responses, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) activation of the innate-like B cells and subsequent polyreactive (natural) antibody responses could potentially contribute to endotoxin tolerance.

Clinical, Virological and Immunological Responses after Experimental Infection with African Horse Sickness Virus Serotype 9 in Immunologically Naïve and Vaccinated Horses.

This study described the clinical, virological, and serological responses of immunologically naïve and vaccinated horses to African horse sickness virus (AHSV) serotype 9. Naïve horses developed a clinical picture resembling the cardiac form of African horse sickness. This was characterized by inappetence, reduced activity, and hyperthermia leading to lethargy and immobility-recumbency by days 9-10 post-infection, an end-point criteria for euthanasia. After challenge, unvaccinated horses were viremic from days 3 or 4 post-infection till euthanasia, as detected by serogroup-specific (GS) real time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) and virus isolation. Virus isolation, antigen ELISA, and GS-rRT-PCR also demonstrated high sensitivity in the post-mortem detection of the pathogen. After infection, serogroup-specific VP7 antibodies were undetectable by blocking ELISA (b-ELISA) in 2 out of 3 unvaccinated horses during the course of the disease (9-10 dpi). Vaccinated horses did not show significant side effects post-vaccination and were largely asymptomatic after the AHSV-9 challenge. VP7-specific antibodies could not be detected by the b-ELISA until day 21 and day 30 post-inoculation, respectively. Virus neutralizing antibody titres were low or even undetectable for specific serotypes in the vaccinated horses. Virus isolation and GS-rRT-PCR detected the presence of AHSV vaccine strains genomes and infectious vaccine virus after vaccination and challenge. This study established an experimental infection model of AHSV-9 in horses and characterized the main clinical, virological, and immunological parameters in both immunologically naïve and vaccinated horses using standardized bio-assays.

Protective immunity of plant-produced African horse sickness virus serotype 5 chimaeric virus-like particles (VLPs) and viral protein 2 (VP2) vaccines in IFNAR-/- mice.

Next generation vaccines have the capability to contribute to and revolutionise the veterinary vaccine industry. African horse sickness (AHS) is caused by an arbovirus infection and is characterised by respiratory distress and/or cardiovascular failure and is lethal to horses. Mandatory annual vaccination in endemic areas curtails disease occurrence and severity. However, development of a next generation AHSV vaccine, which is both safe and efficacious, has been an objective globally for years. In this study, both AHSV serotype 5 chimaeric virus-like particles (VLPs) and soluble viral protein 2 (VP2) were successfully produced in Nicotiana benthamiana ΔXT/FT plants, partially purified and validated by gel electrophoresis, transmission electron microscopy and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) based peptide sequencing before vaccine formulation. IFNAR-/- mice vaccinated with the adjuvanted VLPs or VP2 antigens in a 10 µg prime-boost regime resulted in high titres of antibodies confirmed by both serum neutralising tests (SNTs) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Although previous studies reported high titres of antibodies in horses when vaccinated with plant-produced AHS homogenous VLPs, this is the first study demonstrating the protective efficacy of both AHSV serotype 5 chimaeric VLPs and soluble AHSV-5 VP2 as vaccine candidates. Complementary to this, coating ELISA plates with the soluble VP2 has the potential to underpin serotype-specific serological assays.

Modeling the spatial distribution of Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as vectors of animal diseases in Ethiopia.

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the major vectors of bluetongue, Schmallenberg, and African horse sickness viruses. This study was conducted to survey Culicoides species in different parts of Ethiopia and to develop habitat suitability for the major Culicoides species in Ethiopia. Culicoides traps were set in different parts of the country from December 2018 to April 2021 using UV light Onderstepoort traps and the collected Culicoides were sorted to species level. To develop the species distribution model for the two predominant Culicoides species, namely Culicoides imicola and C. kingi, an ensemble modeling technique was used with the Biomod2 package of R software. KAPPA True skill statistics (TSS) and ROC curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of species distribution models. In the ensemble modeling, models which score TSS values greater than 0.8 were considered. Negative binomialregression models were used to evaluate the relationship between C. imicola and C. kingi catch and various environmental and climatic factors. During the study period, a total of 9148 Culicoides were collected from 66 trapping sites. Of the total 9148, 8576 of them belongs to seven species and the remaining 572 Culicoides were unidentified. The predominant species was C. imicola (52.8%), followed by C. kingi (23.6%). The abundance of these two species was highly influenced by the agro-ecological zone of the capture sites and the proximity of the capture sites to livestock farms. Climatic variables such as mean annual minimum and maximum temperature and mean annual rainfall were found to influence the catch of C. imicola at the different study sites. The ensemble model performed very well for both species with KAPPA (0.9), TSS (0.98), and ROC (0.999) for C. imicola and KAPPA (0.889), TSS (0.999), and ROC (0.999) for C. kingi. Culicoides imicola has a larger suitability range compared to C. kingi. The Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, the southern and eastern parts of the country, and the areas along the Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins in northern Ethiopia were particularly suitable for C. imicola. High suitability for C. kingi was found in central Ethiopia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR). The habitat suitability model developed here could help researchers better understand where the above vector-borne diseases are likely to occur and target surveillance to high-risk areas.

Inference for a spatio-temporal model with partial spatial data: African horse sickness virus in Morocco.

African horse sickness virus (AHSV) is a vector-borne virus spread by midges (Culicoides spp.). The virus causes African horse sickness (AHS) disease in some species of equid. AHS is endemic in parts of Africa, previously emerged in Europe and in 2020 caused outbreaks for the first time in parts of Eastern Asia. Here we analyse a unique historic dataset from the 1989-1991 emergence of AHS in Morocco in a naïve population of equids. Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate parameters for a spatial-temporal model using a transmission kernel. These parameters allow us to observe how the transmissibility of AHSV changes according to the distance between premises. We observe how the spatial specificity of the dataset giving the locations of premises on which any infected equids were reported affects parameter estimates. Estimations of transmissibility were similar at the scales of village (location to the nearest 1.3 km) and region (median area 99 km2), but not province (median area 3000 km2). This data-driven result could help inform decisions by policy makers on collecting data during future equine disease outbreaks, as well as policies for AHS control.

A Qualitative Risk Assessment for Bluetongue Disease and African Horse Sickness: The Risk of Entry and Exposure at a UK Zoo.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) cause economically important diseases that are currently exotic to the United Kingdom (UK), but have significant potential for introduction and onward transmission. Given the susceptibility of animals kept in zoo collections to vector-borne diseases, a qualitative risk assessment for the introduction of BTV and AHSV to ZSL London Zoo was performed. Risk pathways for each virus were identified and assessed using published literature, animal import data and outputs from epidemiological models. Direct imports of infected animals, as well as wind-borne infected Culicoides, were considered as routes of incursion. The proximity of ongoing disease events in mainland Europe and proven capability of transmission to the UK places ZSL London Zoo at higher risk of BTV release and exposure (estimated as low to medium) than AHSV (estimated as very low to low). The recent long-range expansion of AHSV into Thailand from southern Africa highlights the need for vector competence studies of Palearctic Culicoides for AHSV to assess the risk of transmission in this region.